Jaguars vs Texans — Week 9, 2020
The Jaguars took over trailing 27-19 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 25, Texans 27. Texans won 27-25 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 20, 2:57 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.7% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 5.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short right to 18-C.Conley ran ob at JAX 30 for 10 yards.
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short right to 34-C.Thompson to JAX 43 for 13 yards (29-P.Gaines; 41-Z.Cunningham).
- (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr..
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short middle to 88-T.Eifert to HOU 45 for 12 yards (50-T.Adams; 28-M.Thomas).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr. to HOU 25 for 20 yards (32-L.Johnson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Luton pass short left to 88-T.Eifert to HOU 13 for 12 yards (23-E.Murray).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Luton scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-J.Luton pass to 17-D.Chark Jr. is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.58 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.58 pts |
| Curl route | +0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.33 pts |
| QB keep | +0.26 pts |
| Play action | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.15 pts |
| Quick out | +0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| End-around | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Spike it | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.