Texans vs Vikings — Week 4, 2020
The Texans took over trailing 31-23 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Texans 23, Vikings 31. Vikings won 31-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Texans ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 24, 2:53 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.8% for Texans. Our model starts at 6.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 13-B.Cooks.
- (2:49) 25-D.Johnson left tackle to HOU 30 for 6 yards (50-E.Wilson, 90-J.Holmes).
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles right end pushed ob at HOU 42 for 1 yard (95-I.Odenigbo).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at MIN 35 for 23 yards (54-E.Kendricks) [95-I.Odenigbo].
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 12-K.Stills ran ob at MIN 20 for 15 yards.
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 31-Da.Johnson to MIN 4 for 16 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Johnson right guard to MIN 1 for 3 yards (41-A.Harris; 43-G.Iloka).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Johnson up the middle to MIN 1 for no gain (41-A.Harris).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 6, recovered by HOU-31-Da.Johnson at MIN 5. 31-Da.Johnson to MIN 5 for no gain (43-G.Iloka).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 15-W.Fuller.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Curl route | +0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.35 pts |
| QB keep | +0.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| End-around | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Spike it | -0.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.