Giants vs Buccaneers — Week 8, 2020
The Giants took over trailing 25-17 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 23, Buccaneers 25. Buccaneers won 25-23 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 30, 3:34 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 8.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 88-E.Engram (54-L.David).
- (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman left end to NYG 29 for -1 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 88-E.Engram pushed ob at NYG 35 for 6 yards (35-J.Dean).
- (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton to NYG 47 for 12 yards (31-A.Winfield; 23-S.Murphy-Bunting) [93-N.Suh].
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 88-E.Engram (92-W.Gholston).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles right tackle pushed ob at TB 43 for 15 yards (58-S.Barrett).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Lewis [93-N.Suh].
- (1:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at TB 49 for -6 yards (93-N.Suh).
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 88-E.Engram.
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 87-S.Shepard to TB 29 for 20 yards (24-C.Davis).
- (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 87-S.Shepard to TB 19 for 10 yards (24-C.Davis).
- (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right [98-A.Nelson].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.69 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Deep post | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.13 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| End-around | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.85 pts |
| Spike it | -0.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.