Jets vs Bills — Week 7, 2020
The Jets took over trailing 18-10 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Jets 10, Bills 18. Bills won 18-10 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.0% for Jets. Our model starts at 4.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 17 for -8 yards (sack split by 27-T.White and 58-M.Milano).
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 20 for -2 yards (55-J.Hughes).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 10-B.Berrios INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Hughes (90-Q.Jefferson) at NYJ 15. 55-J.Hughes to NYJ 18 for -3 yards (22-L.Perine). PENALTY on NYJ-60-C.McGovern, Unnecessary Roughness, 9 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.67 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.67 pts |
| Curl route | +0.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| QB keep | +0.25 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.20 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Spike it | -0.57 pts |
| End-around | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.