Panthers vs Falcons — Week 8, 2020
The Panthers took over trailing 25-17 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 17, Falcons 25. Falcons won 25-17 — the drive turnover.
Panthers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 5, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.6% for Panthers. Our model starts at 6.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore ran ob at CAR 18 for 13 yards (33-B.Wreh-Wilson).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right tackle to CAR 27 for 4 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 80-I.Thomas to CAR 32 for 5 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at CAR 24 for -8 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 12-D.Moore to ATL 34 for 42 yards (24-A.Terrell).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Moore.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 30 for 4 yards (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 9. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 12 for 3 yards. Penalty on CAR-72-T.Moton, Offensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.38 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.55 pts |
| Quick out | -0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.58 pts |
| QB keep | -0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.66 pts |
| Curl route | -0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.75 pts |
| Spike it | -0.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.79 pts |
| Play action | -0.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.94 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| Outside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.13 pts |
| End-around | -1.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.