Chiefs vs Browns — Week 19, 2020
The Chiefs took over leading 22-17 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
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What really happened
Final: Chiefs 22, Browns 17. Chiefs won 22-17 — the drive time expired.
Playoff football. Chiefs ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 28, 4:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 85.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams right end to KC 30 for 2 yards (98-S.Richardson).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short right to 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 34 for 4 yards.
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short left to 31-Darr.Williams to KC 39 for 5 yards (93-B.Goodson).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams left guard to KC 41 for 2 yards (42-K.Joseph).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne sacked at KC 35 for -6 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne scrambles left end to KC 48 for 13 yards (36-M.Stewart Jr.).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short right to 10-T.Hill to CLE 47 for 5 yards (36-M.Stewart Jr.).
- (:31) 4-C.Henne kneels to CLE 48 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.00 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.19 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| QB keep | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.09 pts |
| Curl route | -2.19 pts |
| End-around | -4.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.30 pts |
| Deep post | -7.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.