Buccaneers vs Commanders — Week 18, 2020
The Buccaneers took over leading 28-23 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
This drive is part of Pro — one purchase unlocks every past daily, both classic packs and the full library, on all your devices.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 31, Commanders 23. Buccaneers won 31-23 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Buccaneers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 23, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 83.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette left guard to TB 25 for 2 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at WAS 40 for 35 yards (29-K.Fuller) [93-J.Allen].
- (4:00) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette right end to WAS 27 for 13 yards (48-M.Kendricks).
- (3:50) 73-J.Haeg reported in as eligible. 28-L.Fournette left tackle to WAS 26 for 1 yard (55-C.Holcomb).
- (3:46) 12-T.Brady sacked at WAS 35 for -9 yards (94-D.Payne).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to WAS 19 for 16 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (2:54) 3-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB keep | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Play action | -2.10 pts |
| Curl route | -2.18 pts |
| End-around | -4.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.24 pts |
| Deep post | -7.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.