Colts vs Bills — Week 18, 2020
The Colts took over trailing 27-24 with 2:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
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What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Bills 27. Bills won 27-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 14, 2:30 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.7% for Colts. Our model starts at 25.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle to IND 25 for 11 yards (21-J.Poyer).
- (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 14-Z.Pascal (49-T.Edmunds).
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines up the middle to IND 30 for 5 yards (97-M.Addison; 27-T.White).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox to IND 34 for 4 yards (58-M.Milano).
- (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 37 for 3 yards (58-M.Milano).
- (1:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Doyle.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 21-N.Hines.
- (:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton (27-T.White).
- (:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 14-Z.Pascal to BUF 46 for 17 yards (21-J.Poyer). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to BUF 45 for 1 yard (39-L.Wallace, 23-M.Hyde). FUMBLES (39-L.Wallace), ball out of bounds at BUF 47.
- (:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left.
- (:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Pittman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.25 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.03 pts |
| Deep post | -0.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.31 pts |
| Play action | -0.51 pts |
| QB keep | -0.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.83 pts |
| Quick out | -0.94 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.94 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.99 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.54 pts |
| Outside run | -1.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.11 pts |
| Inside run | -2.17 pts |
| Spike it | -2.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.44 pts |
| End-around | -2.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.