Titans vs Ravens — Week 18, 2020
The Titans took over trailing 20-13 with 4:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
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What really happened
Final: Titans 13, Ravens 20. Ravens won 20-13 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 21, 4:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.3% for Titans. Our model starts at 12.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:13) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 22-D.Henry to TEN 27 for 6 yards (54-T.Bowser).
- (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 30 for 3 yards (95-D.Wolfe; 93-C.Campbell).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 30 for no gain (53-J.Ward, 36-C.Clark).
- (2:41) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to TEN 32 for 2 yards (53-J.Ward).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to TEN 37 for 5 yards (24-M.Peters).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 14-K.Raymond INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 40. 24-M.Peters to TEN 47 for 13 yards (14-K.Raymond). PENALTY on BAL, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 47.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.80 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.53 pts |
| Deep post | +0.50 pts |
| QB keep | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| End-around | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.