Commanders vs Eagles — Week 17, 2020
The Commanders took over leading 20-14 with 4:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 20, Eagles 14. Commanders won 20-14 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.0% for Commanders. Our model starts at 88.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) 24-A.Gibson left end to WAS 27 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).
- (3:45) 24-A.Gibson right end pushed ob at WAS 40 for 13 yards (36-R.Ford).
- (3:38) 11-A.Smith FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 40, and recovers at WAS 36.
- (2:54) 24-A.Gibson right guard to WAS 40 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton; 93-J.Hargrave).
- (2:09) 24-A.Gibson up the middle to WAS 49 for 9 yards (42-K.Wallace).
- (2:00) 24-A.Gibson right end to PHI 40 for 5 yards (36-R.Ford; 42-K.Wallace).
- (1:55) 24-A.Gibson right end to PHI 39 for 1 yard (49-A.Singleton; 22-M.Epps).
- (1:49) 24-A.Gibson right end to PHI 36 for 3 yards (24-D.Slay; 49-A.Singleton).
- (1:02) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to PHI 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| QB keep | -0.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Play action | -2.39 pts |
| Curl route | -2.58 pts |
| End-around | -4.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.66 pts |
| Deep post | -8.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.