Saints vs Lions — Week 4, 2020
The Saints took over leading 35-29 with 3:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Saints 35, Lions 29. Saints won 35-29 — the drive time expired.
Saints ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 3:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 89.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:36) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 32-M.Burton to NO 25 for 3 yards (58-J.Collins, 91-J.Penisini).
- (3:29) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 27 for 2 yards (59-R.Ragland).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 10-T.Smith to NO 46 for 19 yards (30-J.Okudah) [95-R.Okwara].
- (2:38) 68-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right tackle to NO 47 for 1 yard (71-D.Shelton; 30-J.Okudah).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right tackle to DET 47 for 6 yards (59-R.Ragland).
- (2:00) 41-A.Kamara left end ran ob at DET 42 for 5 yards (30-J.Okudah).
- (1:55) 9-D.Brees kneels to DET 43 for -1 yards.
- (1:15) 9-D.Brees kneels to DET 44 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 9-D.Brees kneels to DET 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick out | -0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.86 pts |
| QB keep | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -2.35 pts |
| Curl route | -2.55 pts |
| End-around | -4.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.84 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.66 pts |
| Deep post | -8.09 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.