Chiefs vs Dolphins — Week 14, 2020
The Chiefs took over leading 30-24 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27. Chiefs won 33-27 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.9% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 88.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right guard to KC 25 for no gain (94-C.Wilkins).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to KC 36 for 11 yards (40-N.Needham, 25-X.Howard). PENALTY on MIA-25-X.Howard, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at KC 36.
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle to MIA 49 for no gain (90-S.Lawson).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman to MIA 40 for 9 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard to MIA 40 for no gain (98-R.Davis).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at MIA 18 for 22 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- (2:25) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right tackle to MIA 21 for -3 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
- (2:00) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left end to MIA 29 for -8 yards (92-Z.Sieler). Penalty on KC, Illegal Shift, declined.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to MIA 28 for 1 yard (55-J.Baker).
- (1:12) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.56 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.88 pts |
| QB keep | -0.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Play action | -2.34 pts |
| Curl route | -2.53 pts |
| End-around | -4.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.62 pts |
| Deep post | -7.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.