Browns vs Colts — Week 5, 2020
The Browns took over leading 29-23 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Browns 32, Colts 23. Browns won 32-23 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 32, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 93.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to CLE 42 for 10 yards (37-K.Willis; 23-K.Moore).
- (2:35) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 43 for 1 yard (96-D.Autry; 44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 81-A.Hooper.
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 30-D.Johnson left guard to IND 29 for 28 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (2:00) 30-D.Johnson left tackle to IND 27 for 2 yards (90-G.Stewart).
- (1:56) 30-D.Johnson left guard to IND 26 for 1 yard (99-D.Buckner).
- (1:10) 30-D.Johnson left tackle to IND 28 for -2 yards (54-A.Walker, 58-B.Okereke).
- (:25) 2-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.95 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.98 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.63 pts |
| Curl route | -2.92 pts |
| End-around | -4.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.03 pts |
| Deep post | -8.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.