Vikings vs Packers — Week 8, 2020
The Vikings took over leading 28-22 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 28, Packers 22. Vikings won 28-22 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 91.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 28 for 6 yards (97-K.Clark).
- (2:00) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 32 for 4 yards (55-Z.Smith).
- (1:54) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 31 for -1 yards (55-Z.Smith).
- (1:50) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 33 for 2 yards (91-P.Smith).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook right end to MIN 38 for 5 yards (94-D.Lowry).
- (:57) 2-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to GB 19, Center-58-A.Cutting. 32-T.Ervin to GB 28 for 9 yards (17-K.Osborn).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.82 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.86 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| QB keep | -0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -2.41 pts |
| Curl route | -2.65 pts |
| End-around | -4.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.93 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.78 pts |
| Deep post | -8.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.