Patriots vs Ravens — Week 10, 2020
The Patriots took over leading 23-17 with 4:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 23, Ravens 17. Patriots won 23-17 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 18, 4:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 86.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:20) 37-D.Harris left end to NE 17 for -1 yards (45-J.Ferguson).
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle to NE 25 for 8 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
- (3:35) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 29 for 4 yards (48-P.Queen).
- (2:48) 1-C.Newton right end to NE 37 for 8 yards (44-M.Humphrey). BAL-44-M.Humphrey was injured during the play.
- (2:40) 37-D.Harris up the middle to NE 43 for 1 yard (90-P.McPhee).
- (2:35) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle to NE 45 for 2 yards (36-C.Clark).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to NE 43 for -2 yards (48-P.Queen).
- (1:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to BAL 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.79 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| QB keep | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.38 pts |
| Curl route | -2.54 pts |
| End-around | -4.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.57 pts |
| Deep post | -7.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.