Texans vs Titans — Week 17, 2020
The Texans took over trailing 38-35 with 1:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Texans 38, Titans 41. Titans won 41-38 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 1:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.6% for Texans. Our model starts at 25.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to HOU 41 for 32 yards (25-A.Jackson).
- (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 46 for 5 yards (21-M.Butler). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 38 for -8 yards (94-J.Crawford).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 16-K.Coutee ran ob at TEN 33 for 29 yards.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 13-B.Cooks.
- (:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep middle to 13-B.Cooks.
- (:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 17-C.Hansen [58-H.Landry III].
- (:22) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.68 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.68 pts |
| Curl route | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.05 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.42 pts |
| Quick out | -1.51 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.61 pts |
| Play action | -1.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.28 pts |
| Inside run | -2.39 pts |
| Outside run | -2.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -3.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.