Seahawks vs Giants — Week 13, 2020
The Seahawks took over trailing 17-12 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 12, Giants 17. Giants won 17-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Seahawks ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.6% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 13.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 31-D.Dallas ran ob at SEA 26 for 6 yards (30-D.Holmes).
- (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 41 for 15 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end ran ob at SEA 44 for 3 yards (49-C.Coughlin).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 86-J.Hollister to NYG 46 for 10 yards (48-T.Crowder).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 18-F.Swain.
- (:58) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 16-T.Lockett (21-J.Peppers).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 46 for -8 yards (99-L.Williams).
- (:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right (24-J.Bradberry) [95-B.Hill].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.37 pts |
| Deep post | +1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.98 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Play action | +0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| End-around | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Spike it | -1.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.