Browns vs Jets — Week 16, 2020
The Browns took over trailing 20-16 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Browns 16, Jets 23. Jets won 23-16 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 11, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 25.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 84-J.Bradley (31-B.Austin).
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 15 for 4 yards (20-M.Maye).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 7 for -8 yards (93-T.Basham). FUMBLES (93-T.Basham) [93-T.Basham], touched at CLE 9, RECOVERED by NYJ-91-J.Franklin-Myers at CLE 17.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.71 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.76 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.08 pts |
| Deep post | -1.11 pts |
| Play action | -1.26 pts |
| Quick out | -1.39 pts |
| QB keep | -1.39 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.68 pts |
| Outside run | -2.02 pts |
| Inside run | -2.04 pts |
| Spike it | -2.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.74 pts |
| End-around | -3.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.