Commanders vs Lions — Week 10, 2020
The Commanders took over trailing 27-24 with 2:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 27, Lions 30. Lions won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 11, 2:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.2% for Commanders. Our model starts at 26.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 82-L.Thomas [98-E.Griffen].
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 15-S.Sims to WAS 16 for 5 yards (27-J.Coleman).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at WAS 34 for 26 yards (26-D.Harmon).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 39 for 5 yards (42-J.Kearse).
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 89-C.Sims.
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin.
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 41-J.McKissic.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle [98-E.Griffen].
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 41-J.McKissic.
- (:57) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 17-T.McLaurin (75-F.Herron).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 89-C.Sims to DET 40 for 11 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 84-J.Badet [98-E.Griffen].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.54 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.65 pts |
| Deep post | -0.71 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.13 pts |
| Play action | -1.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.40 pts |
| Quick out | -1.49 pts |
| QB keep | -1.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.69 pts |
| Outside run | -2.22 pts |
| Inside run | -2.23 pts |
| Spike it | -2.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.72 pts |
| End-around | -3.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.