Colts vs Steelers — Week 16, 2020
The Colts took over trailing 28-24 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Steelers 28. Steelers won 28-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 15, 2:18 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.6% for Colts. Our model starts at 18.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 26 for 11 yards (51-A.Williamson).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 21-N.Hines ran ob at IND 31 for 5 yards (22-S.Nelson).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 31 for no gain (22-S.Nelson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 80-T.Burton. Coverage 28-Hilton.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 44 for 4 yards (22-S.Nelson).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Doyle (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at PIT 35 for 21 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 80-T.Burton ran ob at PIT 33 for 2 yards.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 13-T.Hilton. Coverage by 22-Nelson.
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep middle to 13-T.Hilton.
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 14-Z.Pascal [56-A.Highsmith].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.48 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.48 pts |
| Deep post | +0.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.06 pts |
| Play action | -0.21 pts |
| QB keep | -0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.93 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.14 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -1.57 pts |
| Spike it | -1.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.08 pts |
| End-around | -2.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.