Seahawks vs Vikings — Week 5, 2020
The Seahawks took over trailing 26-21 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 27, Vikings 26. Seahawks won 27-26 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 6, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.7% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 13.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to SEA 23 for 17 yards (50-E.Wilson).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 83-D.Moore.
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Moore [90-J.Holmes].
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right [50-E.Wilson].
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at MIN 38 for 39 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-D.Metcalf.
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at MIN 21 for 17 yards (41-A.Harris).
- (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left [50-E.Wilson].
- (:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to MIN 6 for 15 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Lockett.
- (:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf (21-M.Hughes).
- (:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.52 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.92 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.99 pts |
| QB keep | -1.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.05 pts |
| Curl route | -1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.29 pts |
| Spike it | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -1.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.69 pts |
| Outside run | -1.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.94 pts |
| End-around | -2.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.