49ers vs Seahawks — Week 17, 2020
The 49ers took over trailing 19-16 with 2:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 23, Seahawks 26. Seahawks won 26-23 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 30.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short left to 30-J.Wilson.
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 16 for -9 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), RECOVERED by SEA-94-R.Green at SF 17.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.93 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| End-around | -1.75 pts |
| Spike it | -2.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.