Ravens vs Titans — Week 11, 2020
The Ravens took over trailing 24-21 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 24, Titans 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.9% for Ravens. Our model starts at 29.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 83-W.Snead to BAL 33 for 8 yards (54-R.Evans).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard to BAL 41 for 8 yards (46-J.Kalu).
- (1:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at TEN 44 for 15 yards (21-M.Butler).
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to TEN 30 for 14 yards (46-J.Kalu).
- (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 88-D.Bryant to TEN 14 for 16 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 83-W.Snead to TEN 10 for 9 yards (37-A.Hooker).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 83-W.Snead (33-D.King).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right [50-D.Roberson]. Jackson throws pass away to avoid sack.
- (:18) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.94 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.47 pts |
| QB keep | +1.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.94 pts |
| Deep post | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.30 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.