Texans vs Bengals — Week 16, 2020
The Texans took over trailing 34-31 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Texans 31, Bengals 37. Bengals won 37-31 — the drive turnover.
Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.8% for Texans. Our model starts at 29.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-J.Akins to HOU 40 for 15 yards (23-D.Phillips) [70-M.Hunt].
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 33 for -7 yards (94-S.Hubbard). FUMBLES (94-S.Hubbard) [94-S.Hubbard], RECOVERED by CIN-70-M.Hunt at HOU 38. HOU-4-D.Watson was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.07 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.56 pts |
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Play action | +1.02 pts |
| Deep post | +0.95 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.24 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.38 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| End-around | -1.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.