Titans vs Broncos — Week 1, 2020
The Titans took over trailing 14-13 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 4, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Titans 16, Broncos 14. Titans won 16-14 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 4, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 45.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 4 for no gain (98-M.Purcell).
- (4:24) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Smith.
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Davis (22-K.Jackson).
- (4:16) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to DEN 49, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at TEN 44 for 7 yards (20-S.Perry).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.22 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.59 pts |
| QB keep | -1.73 pts |
| Quick out | -1.75 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -1.81 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.95 pts |
| Inside run | -1.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.91 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Curl route | -2.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -4.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.