Titans vs Vikings — Week 3, 2020
The Titans took over trailing 30-28 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Titans 31, Vikings 30. Titans won 31-30 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 19, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 38.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 24 for 5 yards (93-S.Stephen).
- (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-J.Smith to TEN 35 for 11 yards (41-A.Harris).
- (2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 81-J.Smith to TEN 49 for 14 yards (22-H.Smith; 41-A.Harris).
- (2:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 84-C.Davis pushed ob at MIN 43 for 8 yards (29-K.Boyd).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to MIN 38 for 5 yards (95-I.Odenigbo).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Davis (24-H.Hill).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 10-A.Humphries to MIN 37 for 1 yard (54-E.Kendricks).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 10-A.Humphries.
- (1:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.86 pts |
| QB keep | +0.74 pts |
| Play action | +0.20 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.77 pts |
| Deep post | -0.90 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.92 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.10 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
| End-around | -2.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.81 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.