Cardinals vs Dolphins — Week 9, 2020
The Cardinals took over trailing 34-31 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 31, Dolphins 34. Dolphins won 34-31 — the drive missed field goal.
Cardinals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.2% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 31.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk to MIA 40 for 35 yards (28-B.McCain).
- (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle to MIA 34 for 6 yards (44-E.Roberts).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle to MIA 31 for 3 yards (55-J.Baker).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 13-C.Kirk.
- (1:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.17 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Play action | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Deep post | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.81 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.12 pts |
| Spike it | -2.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.