Steelers vs Browns — Week 17, 2020
The Steelers took over trailing 24-16 with 3:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 22, Browns 24. Browns won 24-22 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 35, 3:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.7% for Steelers. Our model starts at 10.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 89-V.McDonald.
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep right to 11-C.Claypool (39-T.Mitchell).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 48 for 13 yards (34-R.Jackson).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-Di.Johnson to CLE 10 for 47 yards (42-K.Joseph).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 26-A.McFarland left guard to CLE 4 for 6 yards (42-K.Joseph; 97-P.Gustin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald to CLE 2 for 2 yards (97-P.Gustin).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Rudolph pass to 11-C.Claypool is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.84 pts |
| Deep post | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| End-around | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.03 pts |
| Spike it | -1.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.