Titans vs Texans — Week 6, 2020
The Titans took over trailing 36-29 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 36, Texans 36. Tied 36-36 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 24, 1:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.1% for Titans. Our model starts at 6.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 28-J.McNichols [94-C.Omenihu].
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 10-A.Humphries to TEN 35 for 11 yards (23-E.Murray).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-A.Humphries ran ob at TEN 40 for 5 yards.
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to TEN 46 for 6 yards (26-V.Hargreaves).
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-A.Firkser to HOU 31 for 23 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 86-A.Firkser to HOU 24 for 7 yards (20-Ju.Reid).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 10-A.Humphries to HOU 16 for 8 yards (23-E.Murray, 20-Ju.Reid).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 28-J.McNichols to HOU 7 for 9 yards (21-B.Roby, 20-Ju.Reid).
- (:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.87 pts |
| Curl route | +0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.36 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.26 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| End-around | -0.74 pts |
| Spike it | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.