Jaguars vs Vikings — Week 13, 2020
The Jaguars took over trailing 24-16 with 3:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 24, Vikings 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 3:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.2% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 8.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 84-K.Cole Sr. to JAX 32 for 7 yards (50-E.Wilson).
- (3:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short left to 30-J.Robinson to JAX 36 for 4 yards (50-E.Wilson; 41-A.Harris).
- (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 88-T.Eifert to JAX 46 for 10 yards (27-C.Dantzler; 40-T.Davis).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Chark Jr..
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short left to 18-C.Conley to MIN 45 for 9 yards (40-T.Davis; 29-K.Boyd).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 17-D.Chark Jr. pushed ob at MIN 28 for 22 yards (38-H.Hand).
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon scrambles left end ran ob at MIN 25 for 3 yards (51-H.Mata'afa).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep right to 19-C.Johnson to MIN 4 for 21 yards (22-H.Smith).
- (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to MIN 1 for 3 yards (67-J.Brailford).
- (1:12) 76-W.Richardson Jr. reported in as eligible. 30-J.Robinson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Glennon pass to 19-C.Johnson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.68 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.68 pts |
| Deep post | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| End-around | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.89 pts |
| Spike it | -0.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.