Steelers vs Bengals — Week 15, 2020
The Steelers took over trailing 24-17 with 2:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 17, Bengals 27. Bengals won 27-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Steelers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 24, 2:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.0% for Steelers. Our model starts at 7.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 18-Di.Johnson [94-S.Hubbard].
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Claypool (23-D.Phillips).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 13-J.Washington [58-C.Lawson].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.86 pts |
| Curl route | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| End-around | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Spike it | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.