Texans vs Colts — Week 15, 2020
The Texans took over trailing 27-20 with 1:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Colts 27. Colts won 27-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Texans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 1:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.8% for Texans. Our model starts at 7.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Akins [99-D.Buckner].
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 34 for 9 yards (27-X.Rhodes). PENALTY on IND-27-X.Rhodes, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 34.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-J.Akins pushed ob at IND 46 for 5 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at IND 30 for 16 yards.
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 31-D.Johnson to IND 20 for 10 yards (53-D.Leonard, 23-K.Moore).
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at IND 26 for -6 yards (99-D.Buckner).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to IND 21 for 10 yards (53-D.Leonard).
- (:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 31-D.Johnson to IND 15 for 6 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 16-K.Coutee to IND 2 for 13 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-58-B.Okereke at IND -6. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.92 pts |
| Curl route | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| End-around | -0.79 pts |
| Spike it | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.