Vikings vs Lions — Week 17, 2020
The Vikings took over leading 37-35 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 37, Lions 35. Vikings won 37-35 — the drive time expired.
Vikings ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 69.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 30-C.Ham pushed ob at DET 45 for 30 yards (26-D.Harmon).
- (4:08) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 42 for 13 yards (51-J.Tavai).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson ran ob at DET 34 for 8 yards.
- (3:25) 25-A.Mattison right tackle to DET 29 for 5 yards (98-E.Griffen, 70-D.Skipper).
- (2:41) 25-A.Mattison left tackle to DET 30 for -1 yards (98-E.Griffen, 40-J.Davis).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith to DET 25 for 5 yards (25-W.Harris).
- (2:28) 25-A.Mattison right end to DET 9 for 16 yards (26-D.Harmon).
- (2:00) 8-K.Cousins kneels to DET 10 for -1 yards.
- (1:17) 8-K.Cousins kneels to DET 12 for -2 yards.
- (:38) 8-K.Cousins kneels to DET 13 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.46 pts |
| QB keep | +0.16 pts |
| Outside run | +0.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.05 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Curl route | -0.76 pts |
| Play action | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.22 pts |
| End-around | -3.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.75 pts |
| Deep post | -5.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.