Bills vs Dolphins — Week 2, 2020
The Bills took over leading 24-20 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bills 31, Dolphins 28. Bills won 31-28 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 29, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.9% for Bills. Our model starts at 80.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to BUF 32 for 3 yards (56-D.Godchaux; 94-C.Wilkins).
- (3:39) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at MIA 47 for 21 yards (23-N.Igbinoghene). Miami challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie to MIA 46 for 1 yard (90-S.Lawson; 40-N.Needham).
- (3:23) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 15-J.Brown.
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.71 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.71 pts |
| Outside run | +0.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.01 pts |
| QB keep | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Curl route | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -1.78 pts |
| End-around | -4.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.85 pts |
| Deep post | -6.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.