Titans vs Jaguars — Week 2, 2020
The Titans took over tied at 30 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Titans 33, Jaguars 30. Titans won 33-30 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 40, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 59.8% for Titans. Our model starts at 63.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 49 for 9 yards (42-A.Wingard). JAX-25-D.Hayden was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 49 for 2 yards (42-A.Wingard; 96-A.Gotsis).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to JAX 44 for 5 yards (37-T.Herndon, 47-J.Schobert).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 22-D.Henry.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard to JAX 36 for no gain (96-A.Gotsis).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 10-A.Humphries [90-T.Bryan].
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 86-A.Firkser to JAX 31 for 5 yards (44-M.Jack).
- (1:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.00 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Outside run | +0.24 pts |
| Curl route | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.35 pts |
| Spike it | -2.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.79 pts |
| End-around | -2.86 pts |
| Deep post | -3.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.