Jets vs Patriots — Week 9, 2020
The Jets took over tied at 27 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Jets 27, Patriots 30. Patriots won 30-27 — the drive turned it over.
Jets ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 26, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.2% for Jets. Our model starts at 57.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 22-L.Perine to NYJ 34 for 8 yards (21-A.Phillips, 55-J.Simon).
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at NYJ 29 for -5 yards (91-D.Wise).
- (:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 19-B.Perriman.
- (:55) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to NE 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.62 pts |
| QB keep | +1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.37 pts |
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Outside run | +0.24 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.73 pts |
| Deep post | -2.21 pts |
| End-around | -2.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.