Browns vs Texans — Week 10, 2020
The Browns took over leading 10-7 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Browns 10, Texans 7. Browns won 10-7 — the drive time expired.
Browns ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Backed up at their own 3, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.1% for Browns. Our model starts at 72.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to CLE 6 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (4:14) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to CLE 12 for 6 yards (92-B.Dunn).
- (3:29) 27-K.Hunt left tackle to CLE 14 for 2 yards (50-T.Adams).
- (2:46) 27-K.Hunt left guard to CLE 33 for 19 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (2:00) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to CLE 36 for 3 yards (99-J.Watt).
- (1:54) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to CLE 40 for 4 yards (48-N.Hall).
- (1:07) 24-N.Chubb left end ran ob at HOU 1 for 59 yards.
- (:56) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to HOU 2 for -1 yards.
- (:31) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to HOU 3 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.00 pts |
| Outside run | -1.07 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.50 pts |
| Quick out | -1.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.79 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.35 pts |
| Play action | -3.32 pts |
| Curl route | -3.61 pts |
| End-around | -4.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.87 pts |
| Deep post | -7.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.