Chiefs vs Buccaneers — Week 12, 2020
The Chiefs took over leading 27-24 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24. Chiefs won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.6% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 75.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle to KC 32 for 7 yards (58-S.Barrett).
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 36 for 4 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right guard to KC 40 for 4 yards (45-D.White; 93-N.Suh).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end to KC 48 for 8 yards (45-D.White).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left end to KC 49 for 1 yard (94-K.Davis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to TB 49 for 2 yards (43-R.Cockrell).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill to TB 41 for 8 yards (24-C.Davis).
- (:29) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to TB 42 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | -0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Curl route | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Play action | -1.33 pts |
| End-around | -3.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -5.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.