Broncos vs Raiders — Week 17, 2020
The Broncos took over leading 31-24 with 2:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 31, Raiders 32. Raiders won 32-31 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 10, 2:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.7% for Broncos. Our model starts at 93.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to DEN 17 for 7 yards (54-R.McMillan).
- (2:40) 25-M.Gordon left end pushed ob at DEN 32 for 15 yards (24-J.Abram).
- (2:27) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 18 for -4 yards (98-M.Crosby).
- (2:19) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to DEN 21 for 3 yards (90-J.Hankins; 50-N.Morrow).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to DEN 28 for 7 yards (50-N.Morrow; 98-M.Crosby).
- (1:54) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to LV 23, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.17 pts |
| Quick out | -1.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.74 pts |
| QB keep | -1.81 pts |
| Play action | -3.13 pts |
| Curl route | -3.49 pts |
| End-around | -5.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.40 pts |
| Deep post | -8.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.