Colts vs Jaguars — Week 17, 2020
The Colts took over leading 20-14 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Colts 28, Jaguars 14. Colts won 28-14 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.3% for Colts. Our model starts at 91.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to JAX 45 for 5 yards (99-D.Ekuale).
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 13-T.Hilton is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -4.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.96 pts |
| Deep post | -8.50 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.