Seahawks vs Patriots — Week 2, 2020
The Seahawks took over leading 35-30 with 2:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 35, Patriots 30. Seahawks won 35-30 — the drive turned it over.
Seahawks ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 2:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.3% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 90.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right end to SEA 28 for 6 yards (30-J.McCourty).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left tackle to SEA 31 for 3 yards (51-J.Bentley; 55-J.Simon).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett.
- (1:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 19, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-D.Byrd.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.06 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.76 pts |
| QB keep | -0.81 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.92 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -2.25 pts |
| Curl route | -2.43 pts |
| End-around | -4.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.58 pts |
| Deep post | -8.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.