Steelers vs Texans — Week 3, 2020
The Steelers took over leading 28-21 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 28, Texans 21. Steelers won 28-21 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 31, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.4% for Steelers. Our model starts at 90.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner left tackle pushed ob at HOU 44 for 25 yards (32-L.Johnson).
- (4:40) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right tackle to HOU 40 for 4 yards (32-L.Johnson).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 24-B.Snell right guard to HOU 36 for 4 yards (55-B.McKinney, 29-P.Gaines).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner up the middle to HOU 35 for 1 yard (99-J.Watt).
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 13-J.Washington to HOU 28 for 7 yards (55-B.McKinney).
- (2:29) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell up the middle to HOU 26 for 2 yards (96-P.Hall, 55-B.McKinney).
- (2:24) 24-B.Snell right tackle to HOU 27 for -1 yards (59-W.Mercilus).
- (2:19) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-C.Claypool to HOU 3 for 24 yards (23-E.Murray). FUMBLES (23-E.Murray), ball out of bounds at HOU 3.
- (2:00) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to HOU 5 for -2 yards.
- (1:20) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to HOU 6 for -1 yards.
- (:34) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to HOU 7 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.58 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -2.61 pts |
| Curl route | -2.88 pts |
| End-around | -4.86 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.94 pts |
| Deep post | -8.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.