Saints vs Panthers — Week 7, 2020
The Saints took over leading 27-24 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at the Panthers 45, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 27, Panthers 24. Saints won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Saints ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.7% for Saints. Our model starts at 89.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) 28-L.Murray right tackle to CAR 39 for 6 yards (93-B.Roy).
- (1:51) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray left guard to CAR 36 for 3 yards (56-J.Carter; 33-T.Boston).
- (1:05) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees right guard to CAR 34 for 2 yards (93-B.Roy).
- (:27) 9-D.Brees kneels to CAR 35 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.70 pts |
| QB keep | -0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Play action | -2.16 pts |
| Curl route | -2.30 pts |
| End-around | -4.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.48 pts |
| Deep post | -7.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.24 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.