Panthers vs Vikings — Week 12, 2020
The Panthers took over leading 24-21 with 2:10 left, 1st & Goal at the Vikings 9, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 27, Vikings 28. Vikings won 28-27 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At the Vikings 9, 2:10 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.7% for Panthers. Our model starts at 93.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 28-M.Davis up the middle to MIN 5 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith; 50-E.Wilson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-M.Davis left guard to MIN 3 for 2 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Moore. CAR-12-D.Moore was injured during the play.
- (1:54) 4-J.Slye 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+2.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +2.60 pts |
| Take a knee | +1.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -0.93 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| QB keep | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.90 pts |
| Curl route | -3.32 pts |
| End-around | -5.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.19 pts |
| Deep post | -9.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.