Giants vs Cowboys — Week 17, 2020
The Giants took over leading 23-19 with 1:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Giants 23, Cowboys 19. Giants won 23-19 — the drive time expired.
Giants ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 1:15 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 86.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:15) 22-W.Gallman Jr. up the middle to NYG 25 for 5 yards (50-S.Lee).
- (1:09) 22-W.Gallman Jr. left guard to NYG 33 for 8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 39. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:58) 8-D.Jones kneels to NYG 38 for -1 yards.
- (:55) 8-D.Jones kneels to NYG 37 for -1 yards.
- (:29) 8-D.Jones kneels to NYG 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB keep | -0.30 pts |
| Inside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick out | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.22 pts |
| Play action | -1.70 pts |
| Curl route | -1.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.18 pts |
| End-around | -4.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.94 pts |
| Deep post | -7.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.