Ravens vs Eagles — Week 6, 2020
The Ravens took over leading 30-22 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 30, Eagles 28. Ravens won 30-28 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.4% for Ravens. Our model starts at 94.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right tackle to BAL 26 for 1 yard (91-F.Cox; 94-J.Sweat).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to BAL 26 for 10 yards (21-J.Mills).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right.
- (3:21) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PHI 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-G.Ward to PHI 29 for 4 yards (43-J.Hill). FUMBLES (43-J.Hill), ball out of bounds at PHI 29.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.70 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.14 pts |
| QB keep | -1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.83 pts |
| Curl route | -3.17 pts |
| End-around | -5.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.24 pts |
| Deep post | -8.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.