Vikings vs Bears — Week 10, 2020
The Vikings took over leading 19-13 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 19, Bears 13. Vikings won 19-13 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 35, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 94.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) 33-D.Cook left end to MIN 39 for 4 yards (58-R.Smith; 38-Ta.Gipson).
- (2:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph to CHI 40 for 21 yards (50-B.Mingo).
- (1:50) 33-D.Cook right end to CHI 39 for 1 yard (98-B.Nichols).
- (1:45) 33-D.Cook right tackle to CHI 36 for 3 yards (92-B.Urban; 98-B.Nichols).
- (1:38) 33-D.Cook right guard to CHI 35 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan).
- (:52) 2-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-58-A.Cutting, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.08 pts |
| QB keep | -1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.10 pts |
| End-around | -5.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.20 pts |
| Deep post | -8.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.06 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.