Eagles vs 49ers — Week 4, 2020
The Eagles took over leading 25-20 with 2:01 left, 1st & 10 at the 49ers 49, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 25, 49ers 20. Eagles won 25-20 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.1% for Eagles. Our model starts at 94.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:01) 30-C.Clement left tackle to SF 48 for 1 yard (99-J.Kinlaw; 20-J.Ward).
- (1:56) 63-J.Driscoll reported in as eligible. 35-B.Scott right guard to SF 48 for no gain (91-A.Armstead).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 47 for -5 yards (sack split by 91-A.Armstead and 92-K.Hyder).
- (1:46) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to SF 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| QB keep | -1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Play action | -2.69 pts |
| Curl route | -3.00 pts |
| End-around | -5.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.11 pts |
| Deep post | -8.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.