49ers vs Cardinals — Week 16, 2020
The 49ers took over leading 20-12 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Cardinals 12. 49ers won 20-12 — the drive missed field goal.
49ers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.5% for 49ers. Our model starts at 92.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) 30-J.Wilson up the middle to SF 45 for 25 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (3:49) 30-J.Wilson up the middle to SF 43 for -2 yards (32-B.Baker).
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep left to 85-G.Kittle to ARI 34 for 23 yards (58-J.Hicks, 31-C.Banjo).
- (2:53) 30-J.Wilson right end to ARI 22 for 12 yards (44-M.Golden).
- (2:46) 30-J.Wilson up the middle to ARI 22 for no gain (94-Z.Allen).
- (2:01) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short left.
- (1:55) 30-J.Wilson up the middle to ARI 18 for 4 yards (95-L.Fotu).
- (1:09) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.08 pts |
| End-around | -5.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.14 pts |
| Deep post | -8.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.