Saints vs Falcons — Week 13, 2020
The Saints took over leading 21-16 with 1:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Saints 21, Falcons 16. Saints won 21-16 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 1:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.6% for Saints. Our model starts at 90.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:35) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (96-T.Davison).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle to NO 25 for 2 yards (24-A.Terrell). FUMBLES (24-A.Terrell), ball out of bounds at NO 22.
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill right guard to NO 26 for 4 yards (54-F.Oluokun; 96-T.Davison).
- (:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to ATL 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-B.Powell to ATL 39 for 5 yards (48-J.Gray).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.72 pts |
| QB keep | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -2.20 pts |
| Curl route | -2.37 pts |
| End-around | -4.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.54 pts |
| Deep post | -7.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.